November 14th Weekly Market Recap: "We Are So Back"

DeFi Analytics 7th November 2025

The weekly addition of the Crypto DeFi Analytics, covering chain fee generation, Beacon Chain Balance, Uniswap V3 and Liquidations.

“We Are So Back”

After BTC has retraced to ~$102k from >$107k, with derivatives and ETF flows signalling weak dip-buying: short-tenor futures are below spot, option skews are put-heavy, and spot ETFs have offloaded ~$71m of BTC since 29 Oct.

US risk assets diverged, with the S&P 500 up 0.93% and UST yields lower after an interim funding bill ended the 43-day government shutdown but left October NFP and CPI data likely permanently missing. Fed communication remains hawkish-leaning despite the data vacuum, with key officials stressing inflation risks, limited room for further cuts and a high bar for additional easing absent a clear labour-market deterioration.

Structurally, tokenisation and digital-asset rails continue to advance via the SEC’s proposed “token taxonomy”, MAS’s tokenised bill pilot, Franklin Templeton’s Benji expansion, CME/FanDuel’s prediction app and Sui’s new USDsui stablecoin.

​​House to Vote on Funding Bill Today

S&P 500 futures are up ~0.3% as the January stopgap heads to a House vote; Treasuries are firmer, with the dollar and gold little changed ahead of the delayed September jobs print. Crypto is mixed: bitcoin dipped to ~$103k before rebounding above $104.5k, while ether is back over $3.4k, XRP above $2.42, and Solana above $158.

On infrastructure, JPMorgan put its USD deposit token JPMD into production on Base with 24/7 settlement and flagged multi-chain plans, while Visa now supports USDC payouts via Visa Direct with a broader rollout targeted for 2026.

US Moves Closer to Ending Shutdown

The U.S. government shutdown, now 42 days long, appears close to ending after centrist Democrats joined Republicans to pass a temporary spending bill supported by President Trump, with Polymarket odds pointing to a 14 November resolution. Markets reacted cautiously, with Bitcoin steady around $105,000 and Ether near $3,500, while U.S. equities moved higher on optimism over a deal.

The prolonged shutdown is likely to cloud Federal Reserve data visibility ahead of its 10 December meeting, where markets price a 63.7% chance of another 25bps rate cut. In the UK, the unemployment rate rose to 5.0% in Q3 2025, the highest since 2021, indicating labour market softness.

Meanwhile, crypto news featured a bipartisan Boozman–Booker proposal to shift oversight from the SEC to the CFTC, SUIG’s institutional DeFi partnership with Bluefin, and Strategy’s $49.9M Bitcoin purchase despite sluggish ETF inflows.

“It looks like we’re getting close to the shutdown ending”

Polymarket data indicate an 85% probability that the U.S. government shutdown ends between November 12–15, following a 60–40 Senate vote to advance compromise legislation. Bitcoin rose 4.4% to $106,119 and Ethereum gained 7.8% to $3,632, even as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $558.4M in outflows on Friday, the largest since August, compared with $46.6M and $12.7M outflows and inflows for ETH and SOL ETFs respectively.

U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 50.3 in November from 53.6 in October, marking the weakest reading in over three years. ETH’s term structure inverted as traders bid up short-dated volatility, while BTC’s short tenors remained skewed to puts and funding rates turned sharply positive.

Meanwhile, Cboe launched Continuous Futures for BTC and ETH, DTCC listed five spot XRP ETFs under pre-launch status, and the BoE proposed allowing stablecoin issuers to hold 60% of reserves in short-term UK gilts.