November 21st Weekly Market Recap: "You got to work on him, Scott."

DeFi Analytics 14th November 2025

The weekly addition of the Crypto DeFi Analytics, covering chain fee generation, Beacon Chain Balance, Uniswap V3 and Liquidations.

“You got to work on him, Scott.”

A better than expected earnings report from Nvidia helped US equities make a late bounce in yesterday's trading session after four consecutive loss days. BTC fell to $88K intraday, before also benefitting from the risk-on sentiment and surging back to $93K. Alongside that, Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded modest inflows of $75M after five days of cumulative outflows.

The probability of a pause in the December FOMC meeting has surged higher on the back of the BLS announcing that there will be no October jobs report and Fed meeting minutes which suggested "many participants" would be happy to take the sidelines for the final meeting of the year.

​​BTC Dominance Declines Further

BTC’s bounce above $93k faded, with price back near $90k, even as majors outperformed (ETH +0.27%, SOL +1.54% vs BTC -0.14%). Spot flows remain a headwind: BTC ETFs sold $372.8M and ETH $74.2M, while IBIT alone saw $523M out and five-day redemptions of $1.43B despite c.$73B AUM.

ETH vol has re-normalised (ATM IV ~72–74% across the curve), in contrast to BTC where the term structure is still inverted (7D ~55% vs ~49% back-end) and short-dated skew shows a ~10 vol premium for downside puts versus -6% for ETH.

Equities stay fragile with the S&P 500 down 0.83% for a fourth straight session and the Nasdaq-100 -1.2%, as mixed Fed rhetoric and Nvidia’s 2.8% pre-earnings drop weigh on risk, even while structural crypto stories (Kraken raise, BTC-backed NH bond, Fidelity SOL ETF) continue to build out the asset class.

Crypto Selloff Deepens

BTC’s selloff deepened, dropping 4.65% to break below $90k and leaving it almost 29% off its early-October $126k ATH, while ETH fell 5.1% back under $3k and US equities also pulled back. Fed funds futures now see December as roughly a 50/50 coin flip between a 25bp cut and a pause, with Nvidia earnings and Thursday’s jobs report key near-term catalysts.

Spot BTC ETFs logged a fourth straight outflow day totalling $254.6m, even as MicroStrategy bought $835.6m of BTC over the past week and El Salvador reportedly added 1,090 BTC (~$100m), though questions linger over the latter.

Short-dated ETH ATM IV is elevated near 80% with bearish put skew, BTC/ETH futures remain in backwardation, and structurally the market digests Coinbase’s TON listing, Cboe’s planned BTC/ETH “Continuous Futures”, and VanEck’s new VSOL Solana staking ETF with a 6.67% indicated yield.

Crypto Market Hits Lows

Crypto is leading the latest risk-off move, with BTC dropping to ~$93–95K (now negative YTD, back to May levels) and ETH to ~$3,000–3,200, while total crypto market cap is down >25% since the 10 October liquidation. Spot flows are reinforcing the selloff: BTC ETFs saw outflows of $866.7m on Thursday and $492.1m on Friday, and ETH ETFs lost $728.3m over the week across four consecutive outflow days.

Options markets are positioned for further downside, with BTC ATM vols at 45–47%, short-dated ETH trading ~5 vol points rich to the back, and 25-delta skew at -7.8% for ETH and -7.2% for BTC, with open interest concentrated in BTC $90K and $85K puts versus $120K and $140K calls.

Crypto-equity proxy Strategy is under pressure, with shares down 19% over five days and 31% over a month, and its mNAV briefly dipping below 1 as broader US risk sentiment deteriorates on tech/AI bubble concerns and a more hawkish Fed.