December 8th Weekly Market Recap: “First Ever Leveraged Sui-linked ETF”

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First Ever Leveraged Sui-linked ETF

BTC stalled after an intraday spike to $94k and now trades just above $91k, with ETH slipping from $3,200 to $3,100 as short-dated OTM put premia compressed from 11 to 5 vols over calls in BTC and to ~2.5 vols in ETH, even as ETH is only +4% over five days despite BitMine nearing 5% of supply and the Fusaka upgrade going live.

Spot flows remain a headwind: spot ETH ETFs have taken in just $9.8m net so far this week, while spot BTC ETFs have seen $142.5m of outflows including a $194.6m single-day bleed, the largest since 20 November. 

Structurally, 21Shares secured approval to list the first US Sui-linked leveraged product, the 2x SUI ETF (TXXS), taking the crypto ETF tally to 74 for 2025 and 128 overall, while Base launched a Chainlink-CCIP bridge to Solana to move SOL/SPL and Base-native assets cross-chain.

Ethereum’s Fusaka Upgrade Went Live

BTC has retraced its early-month drop, trading back around $93k after a brief move to $94k, while 7D ATM implied volatility has fallen from 56% on 1 Dec to 45% and short-dated skew has compressed from a 16 vol-point put premium in late November to about 3%.

ETH is up over 4.5% in the past 24 hours, back in the $3,000–3,100 range and supported by $140.2m of spot ETF purchases, with 7D volatility smiles shifting from double-digit premia for out-of-the-money puts in November to briefly pricing a 1.5 vol-point call premium before reverting towards neutral.

US 2Y Treasury yields have moved below 3.5% after ADP reported a 32k fall in November private payrolls versus expectations of a 10k gain, the fourth decline in six months and driven by a 120k drop in employment at firms with fewer than 50 employees.

American Bitcoin added 502 BTC to take its treasury to 4,367 BTC, BitMine bought 48,623 ETH and now controls over 3% of supply, while Franklin launched a Solana spot ETF, Grayscale listed a Chainlink trust, and Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade went live on 3 December, increasing blob capacity to help lower L2 data costs.

Crypto Market Surges Past $3T

BTC rallied 7% to just above 93K and ETH 9% to reclaim 3,000, lifting total crypto market cap back above 3T even as BTC spot ETFs saw only 58.5M of inflows versus a 121.6M post-launch daily average, though this still marked a fifth consecutive day of positive flows.

Rates markets now price an 87% probability of a 25bp Fed cut in December, while BTC short-tenor volatility smiles have compressed from an 11 vol put premium to 4 vols and ETH from 10 vols to 2, indicating reduced demand for downside hedges. Elsewhere, Bitmine purchased 18,345 ETH worth about 55M, Kraken agreed to acquire tokenised-equity issuer Backed Finance, and Hyperliquid and Sonnet completed their merger to form HYPE under the ticker PURR, alongside ongoing developments around the GENIUS stablecoin Act, the UK Property Digital Assets Act 2025 and Vanguard’s move to allow trading in funds with crypto exposure.

BTC Drops With JGBs

BTC fell from above $90K to a trough near $83K before retracing to >$86K, with the initial leg lower coinciding with a sharp move higher in JGB yields after BoJ Governor Ueda’s hawkish remarks, and the later weakness tracking a broader risk-off move that saw the S&P 500 -0.53% and Nasdaq-100 -0.36%. Short-dated implied vols in BTC and ETH have been marked lower, with 7-day tenor dropping from 56% to 49% in BTC and 76% to 69% in ETH, but skew remains defensive: 7-day BTC put–call skew shows an 8 vol point premium for puts versus 6 vols in ETH, signalling stronger demand for BTC downside hedges.

Despite an 87% implied probability of a 25bp Fed cut at the next meeting and the ISM manufacturing index printing 48.2 (ninth consecutive contractionary reading), USTs sold off in sympathy with JGBs, pushing 10y yields +8bp to 4.09%.

On the structural side, the FDIC outlined an upcoming framework to implement the GENIUS Act for bank-issued stablecoins and tokenised deposits, while Vanguard’s decision to allow trading of crypto-focused ETFs and mutual funds on its platform potentially broadens access to BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL for over 50M brokerage clients.

Another Bout of De-risking

BTC dropped 5% to $85K in early Asia with ETH -6% to $2,800 and majors like XRP/SOL -7%, reversing last week’s thin-liquidity recovery above $90K after the $19B leverage unwind of 10 October. BTC 7D ATM vol has rebounded 5 vol points to 49% (c.10 vols higher over the weekend) with a flatter term structure and 25-delta skew now showing an 8 vol point premium for downside puts, while ETH ATM vols are compressed around 71% across tenors.

Macro risk-off is underscored by JGBs, with the 2Y above 1% for the first time since 2008, 10Y at ~1.845%, and hike odds for the 19 Dec BoJ meeting priced at 76% (and ~90% for at least one hike by end-Jan).

Crypto-specific headwinds include potential BTC sales from Strategy Inc. if its 1.19x mNAV turns negative, ~$3.5B of US spot BTC ETF outflows in November, renewed PBOC enforcement language on “illegal” virtual currency activity, and shifting ETF/infra developments (CoinShares product cancellations, a potential US Chainlink ETF, Sony’s USD stablecoin plans, and Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade on 3 Dec).