December 22nd Weekly Market Recap: “Softer Inflation Pushed Bitcoin”

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DeFi Analytics 19th December 2025

The weekly addition of the Crypto DeFi Analytics, covering chain fee generation, Beacon Chain Balance, Uniswap V3 and Liquidations.

Softer Inflation Pushed Bitcoin

A cooler-than-expected US inflation print helped arrest a four-day slide in the S&P 500 and briefly pushed BTC above $89K, although the release was clouded by missing month-on-month data and methodological “carry-forward” imputation during the shutdown. Risk assets still rallied, with equities holding gains on the day alongside a further boost from strong Micron results, while BTC retraced sharply to $84.5K before rebounding back above $88K.

In rates, the Bank of Japan hiked to 0.75%—its highest policy rate since 1995—sending 10-year JGB yields above 2%. On the policy front, Washington signalled accelerating crypto oversight: Michael Selig advanced to lead the CFTC, Senate leaders confirmed a January markup for the Clarity Act, while Bybit returned to the UK via Archax and Bitwise filed to launch a spot SUI ETF.

Coinbase Rolling Out Tokenized Stock Trading

Bitcoin returned to $86,600 early Thursday after briefly spiking near $90,000 at the US market open, while ETH weakened from the $3,000 area to around $2,800. BTC is consolidating in the $85–90k area following the pullback and our BTC RAI has stabilised and started to edge higher; ETH has broadly held around the $3.0–3.3k area recently and the ETH RAI has also improved modestly from recent lows. XRP spot ETFs have seen a continuous run of net positive daily inflows since launch (total net inflow $1.03B), with XRP up +0.78% to around $1.87.

Market expectations remain towards the Fed holding rates next month (FedWatch 73.4% / Polymarket 76%), while the BoE is expected to cut 25bp this afternoon and the ECB to hold, alongside headlines including the Fed withdrawing its 2023 “novel activities” policy, Coinbase’s planned rollout of tokenised stocks and prediction markets, and Hut 8’s 15-year $7.0B River Bend lease with Fluidstack backed by Google.

The SAFE Crypto Act

Bitcoin’s recent pullback from $90,000 to $85,000 has coincided with ETF outflows of $634M from Bitcoin funds and $449M from Ethereum funds, even as XRP- and Solana-linked products saw net inflows. In spot, Bitcoin is around $86,200 and down 1.82% over 24 hours, while Ethereum is near $2,900 and down 1.64%, contrasting with XRP up about 1.0% to $1.89 and Solana slightly higher near $126.51.

UK inflation eased to 3.2% in November 2025, undershooting both consensus and the Bank of England’s forecast, while US policy focus sharpened via a bipartisan Senate bill targeting crypto scam enforcement coordination. In crypto-specific developments, BitMine reportedly added 48,049 ETH for about $140.6M, Exodus announced plans for a fully reserve-backed dollar stablecoin for early 2026, and Aave outlined a 2026 roadmap centred on V4 scaling, RWAs, and a mobile product push.

“If I had to choose one word to describe 2025, it is uncertainty”

Williams said tariffs have added ~0.5pp to inflation but should be a one-off price-level effect into 2026, while Miran warned that staying too tight for too long could trigger rapid labour-market deterioration. US Nov payrolls rose +64k (vs -105k Oct) but unemployment climbed to 4.6% (7.8M), and the UK jobless rate edged up to 5.1% (1.832M) as flash manufacturing PMI improved to 51.2. In crypto, Atkins warned SEC rules could create financial surveillance, the Senate delayed market-structure work into early 2026, and ETF flows rotated (BTC -$357.7M, ETH -$224.8M, SOL +$35.2M; XRP inflows >$1B cum) as BTC fell from ~$89k to ~$85.6k before recovering near ~$87k.

JPMorgan Launches Tokenised Fund

BTC and ETH were rangebound over the weekend (BTC briefly dipped to $88K; ETH to $3K), reflecting subdued ETF demand. Attention now turns to a busy US macro week (Retail Sales, jobs, CPI, PCE) plus multiple Fed speakers, with markets leaning toward a policy pause into early 2026.

In tradfi-onchain news, JPMorgan is launching a tokenised money-market fund on Ethereum, while State Street/Galaxy plan a PYUSD-settled onchain liquidity fund and YouTube enabled PYUSD payouts. In parallel, the BoE is expected to cut on 18 December, the UK plans FCA-led crypto regulation by 2027, and Exor rejected Tether’s €1bn Juventus proposal.