December 31st Weekly Market Recap: “BTC Tests 90K Again”

BlockScholes delivers in-depth, data-driven research to help you navigate the crypto markets with confidence.

This is just the beginning of what we believe will be a fruitful partnership, and we look forward to continuing to provide our users with more value and innovative solutions.

30% discount on Block Scholes Research for Coincall users, use the code: COINCALL30

BTC Tests 90K Again

BTC and US equities traded sideways over the festive weekend, with muted post-Christmas session activity across both markets. Early Monday in Asian hours, BTC briefly broke above $90K but again failed to hold that resistance, slipping back to around $89.4K. BTC remains roughly 29% below its October all-time high, while US equities stayed rangebound just below record highs. ETH followed BTC’s move, extending above $3K before similarly retreating back below the key level.

DeFi Analytics 26th December 2025

The weekly addition of the Crypto DeFi Analytics, covering chain fee generation, Beacon Chain Balance, Uniswap V3 and Liquidations.

ETH volatility at lowest since Trump Elected

With gold and US equities sitting at record highs over the holiday period, crypto has remained stuck in a late-November range—BTC and ETH trading around $88.6K and $2.9K—while larger altcoins drift lower. Derivatives markets echo the stasis: implied volatility has continued to bleed across liquid crypto options as desks thin out, with short-dated BTC IV slipping below 35% for the first time since the Oct 10, 2025 crash and 1-week ETH IV at multi-year lows, alongside broadly bearish ETH positioning but a notable normalization in BTC skew as the 7-day smile moves back toward neutral.

Equities Outpace Crypto

A shortened session on Christmas Eve still pushed US equities to fresh record highs, with a surprise dip in initial jobless claims (214k vs 224k expected) and earlier strong Q3 GDP adding to the soft-landing narrative. In contrast, BTC remains rangebound below the $90k resistance (roughly $85k–$90k), pressured by a fifth straight day of spot ETF outflows (about $826m over five sessions). Into year-end, volatility continues to compress across both TradFi and crypto—VIX hit its lowest level of the year, BTC/ETH ATM IV has fallen sharply since the weekend—while skew remains broadly unchanged.

Altcoins Analytics 24th December 2025

The weekly addition of the Crypto Altcoins Analytics, covering ETF flows, Onchain Activity and Regression-Based Valuation vs BTC.

“TRUMP, and some other Geniuses, got it right.”

US equities kept grinding higher after Q3 GDP printed 4.3% annualised vs 3.2% consensus, pushing the S&P 500 +0.46% to a new record (Dow +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.6%) despite consumer confidence falling 3.8 points to 89.1. BTC rejected $90k again and traded ~$86,000 while ETH failed at $3,000 and traded ~$2,900, alongside spot ETF outflows (BTC -$188.6M; ETH -$95.5M) and -$497.1M net BTC ETF flows last week (vs +$286.6M the prior week).

In relative terms, SOL and XRP spot ETFs saw inflows on 23 Dec (+$4.2M and +$8.19M). Gold hit a new ATH above $4,500/oz, with YTD gains of +71% for gold and ~+150% for silver.

“If we don’t adjust policy down, then I think that we do run risks”

US equities started the holiday week on a constructive footing, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 advancing as breadth improved, while gold and silver pushed to fresh records amid expectations for further Fed easing in 2026 and rising geopolitical risk. Crypto lagged the broader risk tone: BTC briefly tested $90k but faded back to ~$87k as spot ETF flows stayed negative, though risk appetite gauges show early signs of stabilisation.

On the corporate and product front, Coinbase is set to acquire prediction-markets startup The Clearing Company to scale its event-based trading push, while Kalshi expanded onchain access by adding BNB Smart Chain rails for BNB and stablecoin transfers. Treasury activity remained a focal point: BitMine continued stacking ETH at scale, ETHZilla sold ETH to repay debt and pivot toward tokenised real-world assets, and Strategy paused BTC purchases while topping up its dividend reserve.

PARITY Act Emerges

BTC rallied about 4.8% from roughly 84K to 88K on Friday and held those gains over the weekend, briefly extending in early Asia before stalling at the 90K resistance level. ETH followed, rebounding back above 3,000 from below 2,800, with futures premia firming and ETH funding rates rising to their highest since late November.

Macro risk tone improved as the S&P 500 rose 0.88% and the Nasdaq-100 gained 1.3% on Friday, while 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields still fell around 3 to 4bp on the week, leaving markets priced for a January 2026 Fed pause and roughly even odds of a March cut. Despite the spot rebound and early signs of a sentiment bottom, BTC and ETH options remain defensively positioned with persistent put-skew across tenors.