January 6th Weekly Market Recap: “New Year, but no Fireworks for Crypto”

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DeFi Analytics 2nd January 2025

The weekly addition of the Crypto DeFi Analytics, covering chain fee generation, Beacon Chain Balance, Uniswap V3 and Liquidations.

Crypto Skew Turns Bullish

BTC remains rangebound between $85k and $95k and is trading around $89k, while ETH has broken back above the $3,000 psychological level and is holding near $3,035 after prior failed attempts. Derivatives positioning has turned more constructive, with short-dated volatility skews flipping from a put-premium through most of Q4 to a modest call-premium (BTC 7D 25-delta skew +0.74%, ETH +0.47%), alongside positive perpetual funding that indicates net-long bias.

Cross-asset risk appetite is firmer to start 2026, with US equity futures higher and precious metals advancing on the day. Focus also turns to final December manufacturing PMIs across the US, UK, euro area and Canada, as December spot volumes across both CEX and DEX venues cooled materially.

New Year, but no Fireworks for Crypto

BTC stayed pinned in its early-December range around $87K on a quiet New Year’s Day, with ETH flat near $2.9K and SOL just under $125. With major markets closed, low volatility has persisted and ETH options continue to price muted near-term moves with higher volatility further out.

Trump’s tariff increase on wood-related products was delayed until January 1, 2027, while China plans to pay interest on digital yuan balances to boost adoption. Uniswap governance approved using trading fees to buy back and burn UNI, but the token price has remained broadly flat near $5.7.

Altcoins Analytics

The weekly addition of the Crypto Altcoins Analytics, covering ETF flows, Onchain Activity and Regression-Based Valuation vs BTC.

Year-End ETF Filings Surge

FOMC minutes leaned neutral-to-slightly hawkish, with policymakers open to further cuts but favouring holding rates “for some time”; markets price just a 13.8% chance of a January cut. The dollar remains weighed by expected 2026 policy divergence, while gold and silver rebounded on renewed Fed-independence concerns.

Crypto sentiment firmed as US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $355M of inflows, spot ETH ETFs added $67.84M, and XRP ETFs extended a 30-day inflow streak. Year-end product momentum continued with Bitwise filing 11 new crypto strategy ETFs and Grayscale seeking the first US spot Bittensor ETF.

Lighter Debuts LIT Token

Risk assets slipped as BTC failed again at $90K and traded around $87K, alongside a second day of US equity losses (S&P 500 -0.3%, Nasdaq-100 -0.5%). Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a 7th straight outflow day (-$19.3M), reinforcing the drag on BTC momentum.

Metals reversed hard after record highs (silver -8% after clearing $80/oz, gold -4%, palladium -17%), while Treasuries stayed calm with the 10Y ~4.1% and the MOVE at 58. In crypto-specific headlines, Metaplanet reported 4,279 BTC bought for $451.1M (treasury 35,102 BTC), Strategy added 1,229 BTC for $108.8M, and Bitmine lifted holdings to 4.11M ETH while Lighter launched LIT with a 50% ecosystem allocation.