January 13th Weekly Market Recap: “Strategy Stays In”

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DeFi Analytics 9th January 2026

The weekly addition of the Crypto DeFi Analytics, covering chain fee generation, Beacon Chain Balance, Uniswap V3 and Liquidations.

Crypto Risk Appetite Report 9th January 2026

The weekly addition of our Market Sentiment Report.

Trump Allies Advocate Rate Cuts

Markets were mixed as focus shifts to two near-term catalysts: a potential Supreme Court opinion on President Trump’s global tariffs and today’s BLS Nonfarm Payrolls report. BTC held a tight 89K to 91K range and traded around ninety thousand, despite US spot BTC ETFs seeing -398.9M of net outflows on Thursday, about -1.1B since Tuesday, alongside -159M from spot ETH ETFs, while XRP ETFs flipped to +8.72M after Wednesday’s -40.8M and SOL extended an eighth straight day of inflows with DOGE adding 333.83K.

Derivatives signals remain two-sided, with short-tenor BTC and ETH implied yields near 6% and modestly positive perp funding, but seven-day volatility smiles still price downside risk with BTC puts at a 4% premium to calls and ETH skew just under 3%. In broader markets, defence stocks led after Trump floated a 1.5T military budget for 2027 versus the current record nine hundred and one billion, while Trump-aligned officials renewed calls for rate cuts, pointing to a 2.50 to 3.25 neutral range versus the current 3.5 to 3.75 target.

JPMD Canton Plans Announced

US equities logged their first decline of 2026 as investors digested a hawkish-leaning split in US data: ISM Services surprised to the upside, while JOLTS openings fell to a 14-month low, reinforcing a “low hiring, low firing” labour market. Crypto weakened alongside broader risk, with BTC sliding from ~$93K to below $90K and short-dated BTC and ETH skews flipping decisively toward puts as downside hedging demand repriced.

Attention now turns to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls and the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs as the next key macro catalysts. In crypto/TradFi plumbing, World Liberty Financial moved toward formal oversight via a national trust bank charter application for USD1 issuance/custody, while Digital Asset and J.P. Morgan’s Kinexys announced plans to bring JPM Coin to Canton and Polymarket partnered with Dow Jones as Babylon secured $15M from a16z.

Strategy Stays In

US risk assets extended the rally, with the S&P 500 up 0.62% and the Dow up 0.99% closing at record highs while the Nasdaq-100 rose 0.94%, alongside strength in metals as gold gained more than 1% and silver surged 6%. Crypto lagged, with BTC rejected at 94–95k and slipping below 92k, while ETF flows diverged as spot BTC ETFs saw 243.2m of net outflows versus 114.7m of net inflows into spot ETH ETFs for a third straight day.

MSCI said it will not exclude digital asset treasury companies from its global indices in the February 2026 review, keeping Strategy included and helping its shares rally about 5% after-hours with mNAV at 1.03. Policy headlines leaned toward easier conditions over time but remained data-dependent, while adoption catalysts continued with Barclays investing in stablecoin settlement start-up Ubyx and Morgan Stanley filing S-1s for spot Bitcoin and spot Solana ETFs with staking in the Solana product.

Jupiter Pivots To JupUSD

Risk assets rallied despite heightened US–Venezuela tensions, with Trump signalling a longer stabilisation timeline and potential support for rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry. Crypto outperformed as BTC climbed into the mid-$90Ks and ETH held above $3K, helped by strong spot BTC ETF inflows and a tentative rebound in spot ETH ETFs.

US equities rose while gold and silver surged, as weak US manufacturing data pulled Treasury yields slightly lower and Kashkari suggested policy is near neutral. Grayscale began distributing ETH staking rewards via its ETF, and Jupiter launched JupUSD on Solana to gradually replace a large USDC balance in its liquidity pools.

ETF Flows Turn Positive

BTC extended its grind higher, printing $93K in early Asia, its highest level since 11 December, while ETH held above $3,100 alongside a defensive bid in havens with gold up around 2% and silver up around 5%. Spot BTC ETF flows showed a clear inflection, with the 11 products recording about $471m of net inflows on Friday, the largest daily intake since mid-November 2025 after weeks of outflows post the 10 October liquidation event.

Short-dated vol repriced higher over the weekend, with 7D ATM IV rising from 37% to 44% for BTC and from 50% to 59% for ETH, before consolidating, as BTC skew reverted towards neutral and ETH remained slightly negative. US equity futures are modestly firmer after Friday’s close, while the rates impulse remains central, with 10Y yields peaking at 4.19% on Friday and the 2s10s curve at its steepest level since January 2022.