January 26th Weekly Market Recap: “Strategy's Biggest Bitcoin Buy Since 202​5”

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Ledger Laying the Groundwork for a US IPO

US equities strengthened as risk appetite improved, while crypto remained rangebound with BTC hovering near 90k and ETH still failing to clear 3k, alongside continued spot ETF outflows. Strong US macro data reinforced expectations of a Fed pause next week, with GDP revised higher and PCE inflation landing in line, while the BoJ held rates at 0.75 percent.

Market structure headlines centred on Nasdaq asking the SEC to lift options position limits for major spot BTC and ETH ETFs, and a scheduled SEC–CFTC joint event on regulatory coordination. In crypto developments, Laser Digital launched a tokenised bitcoin yield fund targeting roughly 5 percent annualised over spot, Ledger is reportedly preparing a US IPO, and Bitmine added materially to its staked ETH position.

"All the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland.”

Risk assets rebounded after President Trump floated a “framework” Greenland deal that would drop a planned 10% tariff on NATO countries starting 1 Feb 2026. BTC is attempting to reclaim $90k and ETH is holding just above $3k, while short-dated options de-risked as the BTC 7D put–call premium compressed from roughly 10 vol points to about 4% and ETH 7D skew improved from -7% to -2.5%. US equities recovered with the S&P 500 up 1.16%, Nasdaq-100 up 1.36%, and Russell 2000 up 2.0%, alongside a 4 bp drop in the UST 10Y yield to 4.25%.

Japan’s super-long JGBs also retraced as the 30Y fell 10 bps over 24 hours and the 40Y eased to around 4.0% from a 4.22% peak, while gold remained firm up 4.40% over five days above $4,800 and crypto headlines included Thailand’s ETF and futures push, US market-structure delays, TBIL tokenisation, Ondo’s 200 plus tokenised equities and ETFs on Solana, and BitGo’s IPO at $18 raising about $212.8m at roughly a $2b fully diluted valuation.

Strategy's Biggest Bitcoin Buy Since 202​5

BTC sold off from $93K to just below $88K before stabilising around $90K, with broad weakness across majors and a sharp reversal in ETF flows: U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw ~$713M of net outflows on Tuesday. The risk-off move has been driven by macro and geopolitics—Trump’s Greenland tariff escalation and a violent selloff in ultra-long Japanese government bonds—though longer-dated JGBs rebounded today after record yield spikes.

Despite the drawdown, corporate and product headlines remain active: Strategy disclosed a $2.13B BTC buy, Galaxy is seeding a $100M “digital finance” hedge fund, and regulators pushed forward on stablecoin and market structure (Hong Kong licensing; Kalshi restrictions). On the tokenisation/alt side, Chainlink’s equities data streams, Solana Mobile’s SKR airdrop, Trump Media’s token record date, Grayscale’s NEAR ETF filing, and BitMine’s growing staked ETH position highlight continued build-out even as macro conditions dominate price action.

Keep Calm and Carry Yen

At the start of the year we published our 2026 Outlook Report in collaboration with Bybit. In that report we highlighted one of the major risks to our macro outlook — “a potential risk-off period in 2026 triggered by violent moves in Japanese government bond yields”, arguing that “the spread between US and Japanese government bond yields is also worth watching in 2026.” The first month of the new year is already showing signs of that volatility in Japanese bond markets, impacting the yield-differential in US-Japan bond yields. How have crypto markets reacted thus far to the current global bond market selloff? Let’s see.

“Sit back, take a deep breath, and let things play out.”

Macro and trade tensions pressured risk assets as BTC slid for a fifth straight session (down 2% to just above $90K), ETH fell 4% near $3K, altcoins also dropped and equity futures and European stocks sold off, while gold and silver hit fresh record highs. Focus remains on escalating US–Europe frictions over Trump’s Greenland push and tariff threats (despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urging calm), alongside the NYSE’s announcement it’s building a blockchain-enabled platform for 24/7 trading and onchain settlement of tokenised US equities and ETFs, pending regulatory approval.

Trump Announces New Tariffs

Bitcoin’s weekend rally to around $97k reversed sharply late Sunday as US equity futures sold off, dropping BTC about 3% in an hour to roughly $93k and pulling the broader crypto market lower. The move was amplified by a leverage washout, with roughly $874m liquidated overnight, predominantly long positions, and by a break in spot Bitcoin ETF inflow momentum, with around $395m of net selling on Friday, while spot Ethereum ETFs still recorded small net inflows.

Macro risk sentiment also deteriorated as tariff threats tied to President Trump’s Greenland push raised the prospect of EU retaliation, supporting another surge in precious metals and lifting Treasury yields, with the 10-year near 4.22%. Meanwhile, Ethereum usage is near record highs but fees remain low due to recent capacity upgrades and a higher gas limit, with stablecoins driving a sizeable share of transactions.