February 3rd Weekly Market Recap: “Rate Cut Hopes On Hold”

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DeFi Analytics 30th January 2026

The weekly addition of the Crypto DeFi Analytics, covering chain fee generation, Beacon Chain Balance, Uniswap V3 and Liquidations.

Crypto Risk Appetite Report 28th January 2026

The weekly addition of our Market Sentiment Report.

"One of the two Kevins"

A broad risk-off move over the past 24 hours hit metals, equities, and crypto simultaneously, with sharp losses in gold and silver, US tech stocks sliding on AI profitability concerns, and Bitcoin falling to a two-month low near $81K amid heavy ETF outflows. The selloff lifted short-dated crypto volatility, coincided with a rebound in the US dollar, and unfolded alongside key policy and industry developments including Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair.

"I have nothing for you"

The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% despite two dissents, with Powell striking a slightly hawkish, patient tone and repeatedly stressing the Fed is “well-positioned” to wait for the data, alongside a more upbeat view on 2026 growth and easing downside-employment language.

Markets were largely unmoved, leaving BTC rangebound around $87K–$90K and ETH below $3,000, while equities were mixed, bonds flat, and gold and silver pushed to fresh records as the dollar resumed its downtrend after Bessent’s “strong dollar” comments. In crypto policy and industry, the White House is set to host a banking-crypto meeting on stablecoin rewards, Bybit is planning a fiat-IBAN “MyBank” service for February, and Fidelity is preparing to launch an Ethereum stablecoin.

Tokenisation and product headlines also accelerated, with WisdomTree bringing RWAs to Solana, Bitwise registering a Uniswap ETF trust, Coinbase adding Hyperliquid to its roadmap, WLFI’s USD1 hitting a $5B market cap, and Strive boosting holdings to 13,132 BTC.

Ripple Introduces Ripple Treasury

US equities extended gains to new highs, with the S&P 500 up 0.41% to 6,978.60 and the Nasdaq-100 up 0.88%, even as US consumer confidence slumped in January to 84.5 and the Expectations Index fell to 65.1, well below the typical recession-warning threshold.

Gold surged to fresh highs above $5,200/oz as the dollar slid toward a four-year low, a move President Trump publicly welcomed, while Japan signalled it is ready to coordinate with the US if FX moves become disorderly. In crypto, BTC continued to lag risk assets, briefly dipping to $86k before recovering toward $89k, while ETH reclaimed $3,000 as spot ETF flows flipped negative again with $147.4m of BTC and $63.6m of ETH net sold.

Meanwhile, the regulatory and product backdrop stayed constructive, with Laser Digital seeking a US trust bank charter, OKX launching a European stablecoin-spend debit card, and Ethereum developers confirming ERC-8004 is heading to mainnet to enable trustless on-chain coordination between AI agents.

HIP-3 Open Interest Hits ATH

Crypto and US equities edged higher ahead of the Fed’s first FOMC meeting of the year, with BTC holding just under $88K and ETH above $2,900 on continued buying from digital asset treasury firms. Strategy added 2,932 BTC while BitMine bought 40,302 ETH and increased staking, as spot Ethereum ETFs snapped a four-day outflow streak with a $117M net inflow.

In macro and policy, the S&P 500 rose 0.5% even as small caps lagged, the dollar fell to its weakest level since September 2025, and Trump said tariffs on South Korean goods would rise to 25%. Meanwhile, the Senate delayed a key crypto legislation session to January 29, BlackRock filed for a covered-call bitcoin income ETF, and product momentum continued with VanEck’s US-listed AVAX ETF and Bitwise’s new onchain USDC yield vault.

Altcoins Analytics 26th January 2026

The weekly addition of the Crypto Altcoins Analytics, covering ETF flows, Onchain Activity and Regression-Based Valuation vs BTC.

Rate Cut Hopes On Hold

JPY volatility surged on intervention chatter as USDJPY hit 159.23 before reversing to 155.63 by Friday’s close and now trades at 153.61, alongside renewed focus on elevated JGB yields. US shutdown risk repriced sharply, with Polymarket showing the probability of a shutdown by month-end rising from 9% to 80% over the past 48 hours.

Crypto moved risk-off with BTC falling just under 86K and ETH trading below 3K, while spot Bitcoin ETFs saw 1.33B of net outflows last week, the worst week since February 2025, and seven-day 25-delta skews remained put-heavy at minus 7% for BTC and minus 8% for ETH.

Defensive assets outperformed as gold hit a record above 5,100 per ounce after rising 8% last week, while Japan and South Korea saw longer-dated crypto catalysts with Japan potentially approving its first crypto ETFs as early as 2028 and Coinone exploring a partial stake sale by its chairman.